Japan's conservative government is poised to tighten its grip on power significantly after exit polls predicted a landslide victory in Sunday's lower house elections. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is projected to secure between 274 and 328 seats out of 465, surpassing the 233 needed to regain the majority it lost in 2024. In conjunction with the seats secured by its junior coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, the parties could win between 302 and 366 seats, according to NHK's exit poll. This election, held on a frigid day with heavy snowfall in many parts of the country, will be seen as an early public endorsement of the new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.
Takaichi, who called for a snap election soon after becoming Japan's first female prime minister last autumn, had vowed to resign if her coalition failed to secure a simple majority. However, her leadership is already facing scrutiny. There are concerns over her management of Japan's public finances and her ability to navigate a contentious row with China over Taiwan's future. Takaichi's stimulus package, worth $135 billion, aimed to alleviate the cost-of-living crisis, but it has rattled financial markets and caused currency volatility. Japan's debt, more than twice its GDP, is a significant burden, and some commentators question her approach.
Tensions escalated when Takaichi suggested Japan could become militarily involved in Taiwan if China attempted an invasion. This sparked a dispute with Beijing, leading to a decline in Chinese tourists and students in Japan, citing 'safety concerns'. The conflict disrupted cultural exchanges and ended decades of 'panda diplomacy'. Takaichi's refusal to withdraw her remarks may have angered Beijing, but it has resonated with many voters.
Despite the challenges, Takaichi's personal popularity, especially among younger voters, has transformed the LDP's fortunes since her election as party president in October. Under her leadership, the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, regained their majorities in both houses of parliament, thanks to public anger over a slush fund scandal and rising costs of living. The party's long-standing governance of Japan, spanning most of the past 70 years, has been bolstered by a divided and uninspiring opposition.
The Centrist Reform Alliance, a recent formation of two existing parties, is expected to suffer significant losses, raising questions about its future. The final count will be known late on Sunday, and if the Takaichi-led coalition achieves an absolute majority of 261 seats, it will control parliamentary committees, making budget and legislative passage smoother. A supermajority of 310 seats would enable the coalition to override the upper house, where the LDP-led alliance lost its majority in July last year.
