Picture this: The MLB offseason is heating up like a summer game, with superstar players swapping teams and reshaping rosters for 2026. It's a shake-up that could redefine championships – but who's really making the biggest splash? Get ready to dive into the top players who've already switched jerseys this winter, based on their projected impact next season. We'll explore the movers and shakers who've changed addresses, sparking excitement and debate across the league.
Some heavy hitters are still lingering on the free-agent market, and a bunch of trade targets haven't budged yet. But a slew of game-changers have already packed their bags since the offseason kicked off. Ahead, we'll spotlight the top 18 players set to don a new uniform for the 2026 opener, compared to where they ended 2025. These rankings hinge entirely on their anticipated Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for 2026, pulled from FanGraphs' Steamer projections as of January 4. For beginners curious about WAR, it's a handy stat that gauges a player's overall contribution to wins, factoring in offense, defense, and pitching – think of it as a single number that shows how much better (or worse) a team is with that player versus a replacement-level option.
A quick note: We're not including folks who stayed put by re-signing, like Kyle Schwarber with the Phillies, Josh Naylor with the Mariners, or Michael King with the Padres. Also out are players who didn't step foot in the Majors last year, such as international arrivals like Munetaka Murakami joining the White Sox or Cody Ponce with the Blue Jays.
And this is the part most people miss... Even though relievers often don't rack up big WAR numbers due to their limited innings, many standout bullpen arms have jumped ship. Think Edwin Díaz moving from the Mets to the Dodgers, Robert Suarez from the Padres to the Braves, Devin Williams from the Yankees to the Mets, and others like Kenley Jansen (Angels to Tigers), Tyler Rogers (Mets to Blue Jays), Matt Strahm (Phillies to Royals), Luke Weaver (Yankees to Mets), Brad Keller (Cubs to Phillies), and Ryan Helsley (Mets to Orioles). Their value might not show in these projections, but their impact on late-inning saves could be huge – a point that often stirs up heated discussions among fans.
- Starting Pitcher Sonny Gray (Cardinals to Red Sox) Projected WAR: 3.9
It might come as a shock to see a 36-year-old hurler who turned in a 4.28 ERA in 2025 leading this pack. But dig deeper, and advanced stats like Field Independent Pitching (FIP) and expected ERA (xERA) paint a rosier picture of his performance. Gray still excels at striking out batters and limiting free passes, making him a smart pickup for the Red Sox, where he can slot in as their No. 2 starter behind Garrett Crochet. Projections have him delivering a 3.68 ERA, 190 strikeouts, and 181 innings for Boston in 2026 – a solid boost for a team eyeing contention.
- Starting Pitcher Dylan Cease (Padres to Blue Jays) Projected WAR: 3.8
After nailing down five straight seasons with 200-plus strikeouts, Cease is forecast to tally 216 Ks in his Toronto debut, putting him third in the AL strikeout crown behind Tarik Skubal (242) and Crochet (239). His projected 3.60 ERA aligns more closely with his 2025 xERA of 3.46 than his actual 4.55 mark. As the star of Toronto's active offseason, which also brought in Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers on three-year free-agent deals, Cease could be the catalyst for a deep playoff run.
- Second Baseman Marcus Semien (Rangers to Guardians) Projected WAR: 3.7
Semien has consistently delivered at least 2.0 WAR in each of his last seven full seasons, largely thanks to his elite glove work. His bat is poised for a comeback after a subpar .669 OPS in 2025 – Steamer sees him hitting .241/.314/.400 with 22 homers, which would mark a nice rebound from his 15 last year. His defense remains a cornerstone of his worth.
- First Baseman Pete Alonso (Mets to Orioles) Projected WAR: 3.6
Alonso has crushed at least 34 home runs for five straight years, and projections keep that power surge alive with 35 bombs in 2026 – third in the AL behind Aaron Judge (43) and Cal Raleigh (38). He boasts the top slugging percentage among Baltimore's projected hitters at .493 (just edging Gunnar Henderson's .488), and he's expected to drive in 101 runs, anchoring a potent Orioles lineup.
- Center Fielder Brandon Nimmo (Mets to Rangers) Projected WAR: 2.6
Nimmo averaged an impressive 3.7 WAR per season from 2021-2025, thanks to his knack for getting on base. In his Rangers debut – part of the trade for Semien – he's projected at .256/.336/.428. His 2.6 WAR ranks third among Texas position players, after Corey Seager (3.9) and Wyatt Langford (3.4), highlighting his role in boosting a young squad.
- Starting Pitcher Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks to Diamondbacks – wait, no, he returned from a trade) Projected WAR: 2.5
Kelly bounced back to Arizona on a two-year, $40 million deal after a 2025 Trade Deadline swap sent him to Texas. With Zac Gallen still unsigned, Kelly tops the D-backs' pitching staff projections, far outpacing Brandon Pfaadt's 1.9 WAR. Steamer has him logging 185 innings with a 4.15 ERA, his highest since 2021 (4.44), but still a cornerstone for Arizona's rotation.
- Starting Pitcher Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles to Angels) Projected WAR: 2.2
Rodriguez hasn't taken the mound since July 31, 2024, sidelined by an elbow issue that carried into 2025. Projections limit him to 129 innings with the Angels – a career best – but his 3.86 ERA would be second-best on the staff, trailing only José Soriano (3.66). It's a cautious step back for a talented arm rebuilding.
- Outfielder Taylor Ward (Angels to Orioles) Projected WAR: 2.1
Just below Rodriguez in the rankings is the player Baltimore traded for him. Ward smashed career highs with 36 homers and 103 RBIs in 2025, but Steamer anticipates a dip to 24 homers and 75 RBIs next year. His .244/.328/.437 line and 115 wRC+ would tie Adley Rutschman for fourth on the Orioles, adding right-handed thump alongside Alonso.
- Starting Pitcher Shane Baz (Rays to Orioles) Projected WAR: 2.0
Baltimore shelled out big for Baz, trading four prospects and a 2026 draft pick. After overcoming injuries with 31 starts and a 4.87 ERA in 2025, Steamer sees him improving to 29 starts and a 4.27 ERA in 2026. Only Trevor Rogers is projected for more innings (168 1/3) on the Orioles' staff, making Baz a key rotation piece.
- First Baseman Josh Lowe (Rays to Pirates) Projected WAR: 1.9
Lowe could energize Pittsburgh's anemic offense from last season. At 31, he's expected to slip a bit, with 22 homers and a 106 wRC+ – down from his 31-bomb 2025 with Tampa. Still, his .442 slugging percentage would lead the Pirates, showcasing his power in a lineup that needs it.
- Second Baseman Jorge Polanco (Mariners to Mets) Projected WAR: 1.9
Polanco bounced back strong in 2025 with 2.6 WAR, his best since hitting 4.0 in 2021. He posted a career-high 132 wRC+ with 26 homers and fewer strikeouts. Projections have him at 116 wRC+, fourth among Mets hitters, continuing his resurgence.
- Second Baseman Jeff McNeil (Mets to Athletics) Projected WAR: 1.8
McNeil was among several longtime Mets changing scenery. He had a standout 2025 with a career-best .746 OPS and 10.6% walk rate. He also showed versatility, playing 34 games in center field alongside other positions – a utility player's dream.
- Starting Pitcher Steven Matz (Cardinals to Rays) Projected WAR: 1.7
Matz excelled as a full-time reliever in 2025, posting a 3.05 ERA and 1.1 WAR in 76 2/3 innings. But his two-year Rays deal might shift him back to starting, especially post-Baz trade, adding depth to Tampa's staff.
- Starting Pitcher Cooper Burrows (Pirates to Astros) Projected WAR: 1.7
Part of the three-team deal sending Lowe to Pittsburgh, Burrows joins Houston's rotation as a young, affordable talent. He shone in his rookie year with a 3.94 ERA, 97 Ks in 96 innings. At 26, he's poised for a bigger role as the Astros chase playoffs.
- Catcher Willson Contreras (Cardinals to Red Sox) Projected WAR: 1.6
Contreras has hit 2.5+ WAR for five straight seasons, despite injuries each year. Playing 135 games in 2025 – his most since 2018 – shows durability. Projections have him leading Boston with 19 homers, offering offensive punch.
- Starting Pitcher Dustin May (Red Sox to Cardinals) Projected WAR: 1.5
Health-wise, May's 2025 was a triumph with a career-high 132 1/3 innings (after never exceeding 56 before). But his 4.96 ERA and 5.20 xERA stemmed from struggles with his fastball (.515 slugging against it). At 28, there's still time for growth.
- Starting Pitcher Michael Soroka (Nationals and Cubs to Diamondbacks) Projected WAR: 1.5
Soroka threw 89 2/3 innings with a 4.52 ERA in 2025 across Washington and Chicago – his most since 2019. Shifting from potential relief to rotation, he's set to continue that with Arizona in 2026.
- Starting Pitcher Tyler Mahle (Rangers to Giants) Projected WAR: 1.5
Injuries capped Mahle at 16 starts and 86 2/3 innings in 2025, but he was dominant when pitching, boasting a 2.18 ERA (fourth among qualifiers with 80+ innings). At 31, San Francisco hopes for more volume in 2026.
Honorable mentions include Outfielder Cedric Mullins (Mets to Rays, 1.2 WAR), Relief Pitcher Edwin Díaz (Mets to Dodgers, 1.1 WAR), First Baseman Josh Bell (Nationals to Twins, 1.1 WAR), Catcher Danny Jansen (Brewers to Rangers, 1.1 WAR), Starting Pitcher Adrian Houser (Rays to Giants, 1.1 WAR), Second Baseman Vaughn Grissom (Red Sox to Angels, 1.1 WAR), and First Baseman Ryan O'Hearn (Padres to Pirates, 1.0 WAR).
But here's where it gets controversial... Are these WAR-based rankings the ultimate measure of a player's worth, or do they overlook intangibles like clubhouse leadership or bullpen firepower? For instance, should relievers like Díaz get more credit despite their stats? What about younger prospects versus veterans – is aging out a real concern here? Do you agree with these moves, or think some players will flop in new spots? Sound off in the comments – let's debate the offseason drama!
